Posts filed under ‘Gilbert Real Estate’

How long will prices continue to go up?

Supply continues to be insufficient for demand for housing in Metro Phoenix as population continues to boom, according to a local expert. While recent increases in mortgage interest rates may have very slightly cooled the trend, there is nowhere near the number of homes needed to satisfy demand, according to Tina Tamboer, senior residential housing analyst for The Cromford Report.

Real estate market remains strong in Metro-Phoenix despite increase in mortgage rates.

During the third week of February, Metro Phoenix had a total of 4,603 active home listings — just 3.5 percent higher than a year ago, Tamboer said during a web conference for HomeSmart this week. But that number of homes for sale is more than 75 percent lower than the same timeframe in 2018 or 2019, and about 60 percent lower than 2020.

The median price of a 1,500- to 2,000-square-foot home in Metro Phoenix is currently $435,000 — up 28 percent from a year ago, Tamboer said. She added that at that pricing, a typical mortgage payment would be about $2,232 per month. Based on estimates suggesting housing costs should not exceed 28 percent of income, she said a family would typically need to earn at least $80,000 annually to afford that monthly payment.

Tamboer said that despite record low population growth nationwide (0.12 percent), Arizona saw 1.01 percent growth in population last year. In 2021, Arizona gained 269 people per day — a population increase rate only exceeded by Texas and Florida.

New construction is not keeping up with current demand, Tamboer said, with issued permits lower in the last half of 2021 after steady increases during the prior year.

“Supply is 25 percent of normal,” Tamboer said of current conditions. “The active supply is extremely low.”

As a result, Tamboer predicted home values will continue to rise through at least June, and probably at a faster rate.

After that, Tamboer predicted further, “Property values will not start to decline — they will go up slower.” 

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February 17, 2022 at 4:42 pm Leave a comment

Local real estate expert says, “If you can afford it today, get them in today.”

Valley’s hot real estate market continues in 2022
Metro Phoenix home prices are expected to continue rising through at least June 2022, according to a senior housing analyst.
Tina Tamboer of The Cromford Report, which provides real-time analysis of the real estate market in Greater Phoenix, had advice for people in the market to purchase a home during a mid-January webinar.
“If (homebuyers) can afford it today, get them in today,” Tamboer told Realtors during the session. 
While the Valley saw a slump during the holiday season as is tradition during the winter, Tamboer said the equally traditional uptick in demand for homes is ramping up now. 
Annual home value appreciation is at 26.7 percent this month — a normal seller’s market sees 4 to 7 percent appreciation. That said, the continued demand from people moving into Arizona probably means prices will be rising even faster through at least the first half of 2022, Tamboer noted.Other highlights from Tamboer’s presentation:

  • The median sales price for a home in the Valley is $440,000 — up 29.4 percent from January 2021
  •  Nearly 43 percent of all Phoenix area home sales closed for an amount over the asking price. In a normal seller’s market, the number would be 15 to 18 percent.
  • The median amount over list price is $10,000 this month — a normal seller’s market would see amounts up to $3,000.

Despite all of this, buyers needing a home now need to be aware that prices are expected to continue rising as supply is still behind demand. In addition, while many building permits have been issued for new construction homes around the Valley, the supply chain issues for materials have caused the average new home to take 10 to 14 months to complete, Tamboer said.
Tamboer added that the unemployment and forebearance issues caused by COVID are “effectively over,” as unemployment in Arizona has recovered to pre-pandemic levels. She added job growth in the Valley is drawing people to relocate from California, Illinois and even New York.
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January 23, 2022 at 5:07 pm Leave a comment

ASU economists say all signs pointing upward for Phoenix real estate

Real estate and the economy in general are expected to continue to trend upward in the Phoenix metro area for the foreseeable future.

That was the consensus from three Arizona State University economics professors who provided an update on the status of Arizona’s economy during a May 6 webinar sponsored by ASU’s W.P. Carey School of Business.

Mark Stapp, professor of Real Estate and executive director of ASU W.P. Carey’s Master of Real Estate Development Degree Program, said a biannual survey of commercial real estate brokers shows virtually no concern that the Phoenix real estate market is cooling off anytime soon.

Stapp said the poll of brokers showed little to no concerns for a break in demand for housing in the Valley of the Sun.

“Is this a housing bubble? Absolutely not – it’s a supply problem,” Stapp said.

Stapp noted the supply of residential housing in the Valley was stagnant for several years after the Great Recession that began in 2007, and the housing supply stayed flat for the past decade, basically meeting demand.

“We underbuilt for the last decade,” Stapp said, adding that any prior oversupply in Phoenix was depleted by 2014.

Regarding concerns that availability of housing affordable to entry-level buyers is declining in Phoenix, Stapp added, as long as interest rates stay low and well-paying jobs are added and continue to be available, “we’ll have affordability.”

However, demand will continue to outstrip supply in the Valley because rising material costs, such as lumber prices, are having the greatest impact on stifling residential construction, Stapp noted.

In terms of economic impacts affecting the Valley, ASU Professor of Economics Dennis Hoffman said Arizona ranks first nationwide in growth of transportation and warehousing jobs. Overall, Arizona and the nation are recovering at a much faster pace than experienced following 2007’s Great Recession.

Lee McPheters, ASU Research Professor of Economics, added that he expects a full recovery from COVID’s economic effects “certainly by the first part of next year.”

“(Rising) population is the ace in the hole for Arizona’s economic development,” McPheters said.

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May 8, 2021 at 1:27 pm Leave a comment

Phoenix real estate market not weakening soon

Local economist expects Maricopa County’s economic boom to continue until at least 2023

For those who wonder when the Phoenix area’s increasing real estate prices might level off or decrease, most economic signs point to “not anytime soon.”

In a FOX-10 Phoenix news story earlier this month, Scottsdale economist Elliott Pollack said the local boom is likely to continue through “at least 2023.”

The report noted increased hiring among both existing and new businesses in Maricopa County is unrivaled in the nation in recent months.

Pollack said the Phoenix area was the best performing major employment market in the entire country last year. He told FOX-10 that among U.S. jobs added over the past last 10 years, 98 percent were lost nationwide in March and April 2020 as a result of the pandemic. During the same time period, Phoenix only lost 40 percent of such jobs. In the current rebound, the report added, the United States as a whole has recovered 55 percent of those jobs lost, while metro Phoenix has already recovered 75 percent.

“We’re in for an extraordinary period of growth,” predicted Pollack, thanks in part to Arizona’s business-friendly policies. “We expect Phoenix to continue to grow extremely rapidly over the next two to three years.

“Phoenix is structured right now to do better than virtually anybody else,” Pollack concluded.

How does the region’s economic performance affect its residential real estate market? With the continuing positive economic news and a growing number of jobs allowing work-from-home flexibility, Arizona’s weather and reasonable cost of living are drawing more and more people to move here from other states.

According to Pollack’s “Monday Morning Quarterback” newsletter, 1,479 new homes and 7,863 resales were sold in metro Phoenix in February. “Median resale price increased nearly 20 percent to $352,000 compared to the price of new homes at $379,900.”

Realtor.com’s most recent forecast predicts Valley home sales will increase 11.4 percent compared to last year – more than the national average.

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March 15, 2021 at 8:46 am Leave a comment

Legal advice offered on fix-and-flip properties

If you plan to sell a home after renovating or remodeling it — commonly known as a “fix-and-flip” property — a Valley lawyer recently offered a few tips on ensuring you don’t entice a lawsuit from the buyer after the sales contract is signed.

Attorney Patrick MacQueen, a 16 year veteran real estate lawyer of Macqueen and Gottlieb, PLC told a webinar audience this week that he has handled about 235 cases involving fix-and-flips in the past four years, accounting for approximately 40 percent of his client caseload.

There are five major allegations a buyer can accuse the parties involved with the sale, MacQueen said. The first is “common law fraud,” meaning an “outward statement” about the property’s condition that is “an out-and-out lie.”

The second is fraudulent misrepresentation is “fraud by omission,” MacQueen said, such as when a question about the property comes up, but the seller or seller’s agent “fails to say anything” despite a known problem with the home with respect to the question. Such can be the case of non-disclosure of mold in the property.

Third is “Consumer fraud” typically has to do with statements or representations made in advertising materials, MacQueen said. “For example, if the MLS listing says the home was a ‘complete remodel’ but not everything was redone,” he explained.

The fourth is “Negligent representation” which involves a statement made to the buyers about the subject property that you didn’t know was false, and the buyers relied on that information. For example, if the seller tells the buyer all needed permits were obtained in the construction of a major addition but one necessary permit was never granted, that would be negligent representation, MacQueen said.

MacQueen said he also sometimes sees breach of contract claims filed against sellers if a claim made by the seller in the signed contract is found to be untrue.

MacQueen said the best practice in selling a fix-and-flip property is to avoid adding superfluous “as-is” statements in the sales contract, because standard Arizona real estate contracts already include a standard as-is language.

Further, MacQueen urged that sellers “disclose what you know” in the Seller Property Disclosure Statement (SPDS) that is typically included in a sales contract, rather than try to avoid using the SPDS when they are selling a property they never occupied.

“Disclose everything,” when selling a fix-and-flip property, MacQueen concluded.

For a Buyer purchasing a fix-and-flip property, MacQueen offers advice. Conduct a third party inspection, request contractor information, warranty, receipts and confirm verbal representation via email through your Realtor. So, when the Seller claims that the contactor who completed electrical repair is licensed, have this confirmation in the form of an email.

Following these tips could reduce the risk of facing a potential and costly law suit.

July 14, 2020 at 4:26 pm Leave a comment


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