How long will prices continue to go up?

February 17, 2022 at 4:42 pm Leave a comment

Supply continues to be insufficient for demand for housing in Metro Phoenix as population continues to boom, according to a local expert. While recent increases in mortgage interest rates may have very slightly cooled the trend, there is nowhere near the number of homes needed to satisfy demand, according to Tina Tamboer, senior residential housing analyst for The Cromford Report.

Real estate market remains strong in Metro-Phoenix despite increase in mortgage rates.

During the third week of February, Metro Phoenix had a total of 4,603 active home listings — just 3.5 percent higher than a year ago, Tamboer said during a web conference for HomeSmart this week. But that number of homes for sale is more than 75 percent lower than the same timeframe in 2018 or 2019, and about 60 percent lower than 2020.

The median price of a 1,500- to 2,000-square-foot home in Metro Phoenix is currently $435,000 — up 28 percent from a year ago, Tamboer said. She added that at that pricing, a typical mortgage payment would be about $2,232 per month. Based on estimates suggesting housing costs should not exceed 28 percent of income, she said a family would typically need to earn at least $80,000 annually to afford that monthly payment.

Tamboer said that despite record low population growth nationwide (0.12 percent), Arizona saw 1.01 percent growth in population last year. In 2021, Arizona gained 269 people per day — a population increase rate only exceeded by Texas and Florida.

New construction is not keeping up with current demand, Tamboer said, with issued permits lower in the last half of 2021 after steady increases during the prior year.

“Supply is 25 percent of normal,” Tamboer said of current conditions. “The active supply is extremely low.”

As a result, Tamboer predicted home values will continue to rise through at least June, and probably at a faster rate.

After that, Tamboer predicted further, “Property values will not start to decline — they will go up slower.” 

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Entry filed under: Arizona Real Estate, Chandler Real Estate, Gilbert Real Estate, Maricopa County Real Estate, Phoenix Real Estate, Uncategorized. Tags: .

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